Worth a watch -> The outlook for used gear in 2024 - Used Guitar Apocalypse?

[MarcB]

As predicted .. the post pandemic used guitar market crashing (somewhat) ..
I’ve noticed prices have gone down with realistic sellers on eBay/reverb with private sellers still hoping in vain for the “pandemic price” they paid or were expecting..
I bought 6 guitars during the pandemic but paid below the “pandemic price” .. as those bargains were to be had.. an example of was x2 335 for way below 2k.. as I predicted the prices would rise substantially during Covid and wouldn’t drop below that again.. so snapped up the guitars I wanted.. and low behold .. now you can not get a used 335 for under 2k..

Anyway.. this video confirms my theory hatched during lockdown..

 

[Amp360]

I bought a brand-new Squier 51 style P-bass on Amazon around Christmas for $300. Only the trans white was this price. They were massively overstocked, and the other colors were all more money.

51 Squier Bass

A lot of the FMIC product is not built so well to begin with and there's TONS of it out there right now.

I agree with the guy in the video. The market for new and newly used isn't so good.

The small amp thing makes no sense to me, but that's what the people buying amps are doing I guess.

 

[MarcB]

TONS of it out there right now.

Its true… all the used stuff that’s over priced (covid prices) is still there.. unsold..6-10 month’s later.. all the newer used items with realistic prices only lasts around 1-2 months max..
the best deals are on new stock for sure from retailers.. with big discounts on 21/22 models. That’s how I got my 61 SG RI below MRP

That’s said .. the covid pricing mentality for buyers and sellers is still a thing.. which is how I managed to buy a guitar for 600 during covid and recently trade it up for 800 amp..
you just gotta know what the market wants and don’t want.. and a big part of that is online influence..

 

[bursty]

I typically concentrate my guitar purchases to custom order, difficult to locate, limited editions, one offs, rare, etc. examples.

When I attempt to off-load examples I will typically have something that not too many others are offering and that typically works in my favor as far as being successful at selling.

Price points are something I don't really pay attention to as I will typically obtain the $$$$ amount I am asking for, for any given example.

Maybe the guy in the video is discussing mass produced examples?
Dunno but I'm not having any meltdown with examples I attempt to sell.

YMMV .........

 

[MarcB]

Maybe the guy in the video is discussing mass produced examples?

I think the point he’s trying to make which was also discussed as a topic from Casino guitars a good few months ago.. (but more in relation to big dealers).. and by those that follow the new and used market .. is the rise and then sudden fall of the guitar market..
what I thought was interesting about the video I posted was that obviously it’s a small mom and pop store.. so when the boom and bust scenario is at mom and pop level.. you know it’s the final stage of the market value.. as this is where the buck stops .. mom and pop shops are reliant on trends etc.. as they can’t stock everything like GC, sweetwater etc.. so you can rely on their judgement of the market.
What he didn’t specify or speculate in the video was the drop in market value was only by around 6-10% .. so effectively the market is still stronger than pre pandemic levels.
Also worth noting that this is the very start of the trend.. as I’ve noticed some price changes in the last two months.

 

[MarcB]

I typically concentrate my guitar purchases to custom order, difficult to locate, limited editions, one offs, rare, etc. examples.

I’ve been contemplating this market.. as I have my “standard” models now.. but the guilt of expenditure is a thing. lol .. but the rise and fall of the market is alluring .. as bargains can be had.. as this current fall can only be a good thing for the buyer

Ps my mileage depends on gas prices lol

 

[Gary Ladd]

A whole bunch of problemos have piled up into a situation where most people are gonna be struggling just to have a table to put food on, definitely not a good time to be starting out, and these are still the "good" times...

I'm seeing boutique builders starting to drop prices (into inflationary headwinds, never dropped prices b4), as nuthin' is moving, soon people will find the *actual* prices that their *special* gear will sell for is a *LOT* lower than they could imagine, yet.

Too many people dumping their guitars too quickly ~ People have unrealistic expectations of value.

Choices have consequences ~ Truth is *most* of the "bad things" happening didn't have to happen to begin with , but nothing *great* lasts forever...

Enjoy the show.

 

[MarcB]

A whole bunch of problemos have piled up into a situation where most people are gonna be struggling just to have a table to put food on, definitely not a good time to be starting out, and these are still the "good" times...

I'm seeing boutique builders starting to drop prices (into inflationary headwinds, never dropped prices b4), as nuthin' is moving, soon people will find the *actual* prices that their *special* gear will sell for is a *LOT* lower than they could imagine, yet.



Choices have consequences ~ Truth is *most* of the "bad things" happening didn't have to happen to begin with , but nothing *great* lasts forever...

Enjoy the show.

Very valid points Gary.. and as I believe you’re alluding to.. that this situation is not confined to the guitar market.. it is in fact the result of bad management of economics .. and the sad reality of this is that people are now forced to sell their cherished items to buy food/rent etc..

The US & UK for the first time in history have now fallen below 0 assets thus negative equity.. meaning they have no value as a country..


Elysium is becoming a reality.

 

[bursty]

I’ve been contemplating this market.. as I have my “standard” models now.. but the guilt of expenditure is a thing. lol .. but the rise and fall of the market is alluring .. as bargains can be had.. as this current fall can only be a good thing for the buyer

Ps my mileage depends on gas prices lol

purchasing from Japan is currently a nice potential as the yen/dollar conversion is 146/1

years ago it was around 100/1 so, a US buyer currently has significantly more buying power with the current conversion rates very favorable to US buyers that want to purchase from Japanese sources

 

[ADP]

Living in the great United States of America - I've never worried once about the resale or market of electric guitars. God Bless America.

 

[deytookerjaabs]

purchasing from Japan is currently a nice potential as the yen/dollar conversion is 146/1

years ago it was around 100/1 so, a US buyer currently has significantly more buying power with the current conversion rates very favorable to US buyers that want to purchase from Japanese sources

I have a guitar purchase from Ishibashi that's been stuck for weeks now. It's a Gibson, but they (DHL) tried to charge a "foreign item" import duty on it (which has never happened when I bought a Gibson from Japan before). So, I opened a dispute with DHL, now it sits at the Baltimore airport, for how long is anyone's guess.

Problem is, they take 3+ business days to reply to any email, literally. You never get to deal directly with one person in the duty department for the resolution, only a generic email queue. It's one of the most aggravating examples of service I've ever dealt with. Of a few emails sent last Wednesday...I got a reply this morning about attaching a form that was attached on one of the later emails sent to them that day! And that was after I waited 3 days to get a reply to the previous contact with them.

I got better service from the IRS, seriously feels like a shakedown.

 

[bursty]

I have a guitar purchase from Ishibashi that's been stuck for weeks now. It's a Gibson, but they (DHL) tried to charge a "foreign item" import duty on it (which has never happened when I bought a Gibson from Japan before). So, I opened a dispute with DHL, now it sits at the Baltimore airport, for how long is anyone's guess.

Problem is, they take 3+ business days to reply to any email, literally. You never get to deal directly with one person in the duty department for the resolution, only a generic email queue. It's one of the most aggravating examples of service I've ever dealt with. Of a few emails sent last Wednesday...I got a reply this morning about attaching a form that was attached on one of the later emails sent to them that day! And that was after I waited 3 days to get a reply to the previous contact with them.

I got better service from the IRS, seriously feels like a shakedown.

If at all possible NEVER use DHL; just sayin' ....... and if the seller didn't offer an alternate option then IMO I would avoid any seller that uses DHL only.

That's just me tho' ........... YMMV

Good luck with your purchase; I'm sure it will work out but with some Xtra time ......

 

[MarcB]

purchasing from Japan

I’ve heavily considered this option as the level of guitars available is phenomenal and at a decent price.. my only issue is the transportation & import duty and cost of both .. is it worth it.. possibly.. but can be fraught with complexity (as above) and risk of loss or damage..

 

[deytookerjaabs]

If at all possible NEVER use DHL; just sayin' ....... and if the seller didn't offer an alternate option then IMO I would avoid any seller that uses DHL only.

That's just me tho' ........... YMMV

Good luck with your purchase; I'm sure it will work out but with some Xtra time ......

Yep, DHL was the only option when I was checking out. Pretty sure the last couple things I got from them were EMS. Lesson learned the hard way.

 

[MarcB]

Yep, DHL was the only option when I was checking out. Pretty sure the last couple things I got from them were EMS. Lesson learned the hard way.

I hope this pans out for you.. and you get your guitar.

 

[goldtop0]

Yep, good to see the used market reflecting pre covid used market prices.

 

[MarcB]

Yep, good to see the used market reflecting pre covid used market prices.

..and with the over production of new guitars being discounted.. should allow for a further nudge downward of used guitar prices .. (this will have a short shelf life though)

 

[Dave P]

Used guitar prices where I live are still absurd.

 

[MarcB]

Used guitar prices where I live are still absurd.

As are the local guitar shows too.. seems small/mid time dealers are stuck with items they probably paid too much for.. and are stubborn enough to stick to their price to gain a profit.. bigger sellers know when to cut a small loss and just sell..

 

[JASIII]

At my former employer I was involved in shipping decisions and DHL is pushing HARD recently for a bigger cut of the international shipping game. Fedex rates are horrendous, UPS is only marginally better, and with USPS it's a crapshoot if anyone will ever see your package again. I avoid buying international if I can and never ever sell internationally. YMMV