Worth a watch -> The outlook for used gear in 2024 - Used Guitar Apocalypse?

[Amp360]

Many of us here are in it for the long haul. I have guitars I've probably paid too much for, but if I've used them on projects where they're paid for themselves (and hopefully more), does it matter?

The other thing is that many of us don't buy something with resale value in mind. Sure, it's great if we get our money back or make money, but the enjoyment we get out of our guitars should be worth something too, right?

If someone is buying a ton of new mid/low-level production guitars as short-term purchases, they may run into problems, but that's not something new.

 

[MarcB]

Many of us here are in it for the long haul. I have guitars I've probably paid too much for, but if I've used them on projects where they're paid for themselves (and hopefully more), does it matter?

The other thing is that many of us don't buy something with resale value in mind. Sure, it's great if we get our money back or make money, but the enjoyment we get out of our guitars should be worth something too, right?

If someone is buying a ton of new mid/low-level production guitars as short-term purchases, they may run into problems, but that's not something new.

agreed.. I still own my first guitar from when I was 18.. my objective is to get guitars I want.. and keep them.. I’m not in it for instant resale/flips.. I’m a long term buyer.. I play my guitars.. and if I fall out with a guitar.. it’s normally after 10+ years.. which would’ve then gained value (hopefully) and then use this to trade up.. which has only happened x3 and traded up well.. for guitars that will stay and get used.

That said I did test the market on one guitar.. and doubled my money in 6 weeks (trend sale). Which is great.. but it’s not my bag.
I’m a player.. first and foremost..
but when in the market .. you have to keep an eye on the market and know when to buy (or sell) as our pride and joys are investments as well.. and I guess the point of the thread should be that used guitar prices are coming down.. which is a good thing. As there are a few more I still want.

One lesson I was taught by an older muso when getting into music and instruments as a teenager… was “never ever sell your guitar” lol
..and that’s kind of stuck tbh..

 

[Any Name You Wish]

"Apocalypse" is over-doing it. So the pandemic free money bonanza caused a huge demand and price run-up, and now we are heading back to a more normal market and it seems relatively bad. Same thing going on in houses in many areas of the country. A diminishing sine wave. A smaller business, like the guy in the video has, will feel it more intensely.

Small amp trend? People are really misled when it comes to amps. There are smaller tube amps in the 5-20 watt range that need to be cranked up to 95 db to sound good (looking at you SV20H). There are 40 watt amps (looking at you '59 Bassman RI) that sound great all the way down to 2. Weight and portability aside, I would rather have a Twin Reverb at home than some small amp that sounds like crap at low volume, and the Twin is going to be cheaper at today's prices. I agree with the shop owner in the video that the amp buyers are in herd mentality right now. Funny story: I recently played in a jam session and the other guitar player had a 5w amp. I brought in my Bassman and that guitar player leaned back and his eyes got really big. The drummer however looked at me a smiled.

 

[MarcB]

Small amp trend

The herd forget that this was born from a recording standpoint… not live

My latest acquisition, Vox AC30, does very well at 5-7 volume at home.. you just have to ignore the neighbours banging on the wall.. lol.

 

[MarcB]

This is interesting from a pricing standpoint:

 

[goldtop0]

At my former employer I was involved in shipping decisions and DHL is pushing HARD recently for a bigger cut of the international shipping game. Fedex rates are horrendous, UPS is only marginally better, and with USPS it's a crapshoot if anyone will ever see your package again. I avoid buying international if I can and never ever sell internationally. YMMV

Depends on where you are around the globe.
Since '03 I've always bought new or used from the USA, I'm in NZ. Fedex, DHL and UPS, however Fedex mainly over the decades. Freight costs have gone through the roof since '20 and the global covid BS, with the bigger US dealers still able to offer semi reasonable rates US$500/550 for a guitar. Last year I had to go with USPS International Parcel Post from a 'home' dealer out of New York, guys like him don't get good rates per Fedex etc US$750/800 upwards, USPS was US$450/500 and I didn't have any problems with delivery.

 

[Gary Ladd]

You know what, I'm gonna hope & pray for the best outcome for everyone...

No need to warn about worse case scenarios, no one listens/cares anyways

FWFS

 

[Dave P]

As are the local guitar shows too.. seems small/mid time dealers are stuck with items they probably paid too much for.. and are stubborn enough to stick to their price to gain a profit.. bigger sellers know when to cut a small loss and just sell..

A good friend of mine is a Gibson/Fender dealer. He was having huge problems during Covid getting any guitars from manufacturers, so he was beating the bushes buying tons of used stuff to keep his stock up, a lot of it sold immediately. He admitted paying too much for some of it, but he had to in order to have inventory. The stuff that didn't sell is now hanging there gathering dust. He is a small dealer so I doubt he is going to want to cut his losses and eat the difference to move the gear. Kind of a bad situation, really.

 

[MarcB]

A good friend of mine is a Gibson/Fender dealer. He was having huge problems during Covid getting any guitars from manufacturers, so he was beating the bushes buying tons of used stuff to keep his stock up, a lot of it sold immediately. He admitted paying too much for some of it, but he had to in order to have inventory. The stuff that didn't sell is now hanging there gathering dust. He is a small dealer so I doubt he is going to want to cut his losses and eat the difference to move the gear. Kind of a bad situation, really.

Its due to bad business when dealers get stuck with stock, due to over paying and I understand he did it to get stock... but dealers forget that “a profit is a profit” even if it’s 1% .. knowing and predicting the market is crucial when in sales..
I would’ve cut my losses by selling sooner at base cost, instead of trying to get a 10%+ mark up..
at one point he’s gonna have to sell those remaining guitars at a loss.. which is a shame.

 

[Dave P]

Its due to bad business when dealers get stuck with stock, due to over paying and I understand he did it to get stock... but dealers forget that “a profit is a profit” even if it’s 1% .. knowing and predicting the market is crucial when in sales..
I would’ve cut my losses by selling sooner at base cost, instead of trying to get a 10%+ mark up..
at one point he’s gonna have to sell those remaining guitars at a loss.. which is a shame.

I don't know if I would consider it bad business, he did what he had to so his business didn't flounder during covid. The store is 60 years old and run by the same family the whole time. They have weathered far worse than a few overpriced guitars, like when a tornado hit their store around 40 years ago. The owner actually knows more about vintage guitars than some of the big hitters in the business, I've learned a lot from him over the years. I'm sure if the stuff sits for too long he will blow it out.

 

[MarcB]

I don't know if I would consider it bad business, he did what he had to so his business didn't flounder during covid. The store is 60 years old and run by the same family the whole time. They have weathered far worse than a few overpriced guitars, like when a tornado hit their store around 40 years ago. The owner actually knows more about vintage guitars than some of the big hitters in the business, I've learned a lot from him over the years. I'm sure if the stuff sits for too long he will blow it

My “bad business” comment is in relation to sticking to their larger profit margins even when the market has dropped in value. As a business owner they should be able to preempt the market fluctuations and act accordingly.. and keep in mind that “a profit is a profit” even if it’s 1%.. holding on to stock to retain the already diminished percentage of previous profit.. is bad business.

 

[Amp360]

My “bad business” comment is in relation to sticking to their larger profit margins even when the market has dropped in value. As a business owner they should be able to preempt the market fluctuations and act accordingly.. and keep in mind that “a profit is a profit” even if it’s 1%.. holding on to stock to retain the already diminished percentage of previous profit.. is bad business.

The thing is with C19 it was something we've never experienced. I was supposed to go out on a tour, and it was canceled. Businesses didn't know how long things would last, and the market was going crazy out of free money, which we're now paying for, and boredom.

It's like musical chairs. When the music stopped, people were stuck. If dealers have Fender/Gibson that they paid too much for I would guess they'll stick it in the back until the next election when we're probably going to be locked down again or until the next round of price raises.

 

[ADP]

The thing is with C19 it was something we've never experienced. I was supposed to go out on a tour, and it was canceled. Businesses didn't know how long things would last, and the market was going crazy out of free money, which we're now paying for, and boredom.

It's like musical chairs. When the music stopped, people were stuck. If dealers have Fender/Gibson that they paid too much for I would guess they'll stick it in the back until the next election when we're probably going to be locked down again or until the next round of price raises.

It's hard to believe how stupid people were proven to be. What a time to be alive.

 

[MarcB]

When the music stopped

I predict market greed will continue to grow with guitars ultimately becoming a top end luxury item (if it isn’t already re: Gibson prices) and used prices will reflect this for decades to come..couple that with not much trickling down people will be forced to spend every spare penny on survival.

I guess we’re lucky in that we bought guitars when they were “tools of the trade”.. as I’m heavily doubting I’ll buy another guitar.

 

[MarcB]

as I’m heavily doubting I’ll buy another guitar.

Who am I kidding lol